Welcome to The Pregame Lineup, a weekday newsletter that gets you up to speed on everything you need to know for today's games, while catching you up on fun and interesting stories you might have missed. Thanks for being here.
There was a time not too long ago when it seemed like the postseason field might well be settled by this point.
Well, so much for that.
Instead, the MLB regular season enters its final weekend with a tremendous amount still at stake, as some teams surge toward the finish line and others try to hold on for dear life. Two divisions (the AL East and AL Central) and both Wild Card races hang in the balance. On the AL side, there are four teams fighting for three berths, while on the NL side, there are three clubs battling for the final ticket to October.
In other words, the next three days are going to be bananas. (And remember: Every game on Sunday will start at roughly 3 p.m. ET.) So before the madness begins, let's take a team-by-team look to prepare you for the drama ahead. (Each team's weekend opponent is listed in parentheses.)
The Guardians (vs. TEX) and Tigers (at BOS) are the only teams that enter this weekend with all three of these results in play: 1) Division title, 2) Wild Card berth, or 3) No postseason berth at all. Cleveland is on the brink of setting a record for the largest deficit overcome to capture a division crown, because while the teams are tied in the standings, Cleveland holds the tiebreaker. In other words, the Tigers need to win one more game than the Guardians this weekend to snatch back the AL Central title.
It's entirely possible that both teams make the playoffs and even face each other in the Wild Card Series, with the division winner as the No. 3 seed and the runner-up as the No. 6 seed. Both the Guardians and Tigers are one game ahead of the Astros and also hold the tiebreaker over Houston, so both teams need a combination of two wins or Astros losses to clinch a playoff spot.
The Blue Jays (vs. TB) and Yankees (vs. BAL) both have clinched playoff berths, and they are tied atop the AL East standings, with the Blue Jays holding the tiebreaker. Whichever team comes out on top will be either the No. 1 or 2 seed in the AL alongside the Mariners, while the other will be the No. 4 seed and host a Wild Card Series.
Seattle (vs. LAD) enters the weekend a game behind both Toronto and New York and doesn't have the tiebreaker with either AL East squad.
The Red Sox (vs. DET) are out of the AL East race but are two games ahead of the Astros for the final AL Wild Card berth and also hold the tiebreaker over Houston. Therefore, just one Boston win or Houston loss locks up a playoff spot for the Sox, who could finish as either the No. 5 or No. 6 AL seed.
The Astros (at LAA) are in a somewhat dire situation. Not only are they a game out of the final spot, but they would lose a tiebreaker to each of the three teams they could catch (the Guardians, Tigers or Red Sox). Even if Houston wins out, it would need one of Cleveland or Detroit to lose at least two games OR for Boston to lose out.
Shifting over to the NL side, the Mets (at MIA) are the only team that controls its destiny for the third and final Wild Card spot, which would mean the No. 6 seed in the playoff field. If New York wins out, it heads to October and would play the Dodgers in the Wild Card Series. With that said, even one loss puts the club in danger, because it would lose a tiebreaker to both the Reds (at MIL) and D-backs (at SD). Basically, the Mets need to win at least as many games as Cincinnati AND no worse than one fewer game than Arizona to survive.
On the flip side, the Reds need to win one more game than the Mets. They also hold the tiebreaker over the D-backs. So if, for example, Cincinnati wins two of three in Milwaukee, it would eliminate Arizona and grab a spot with two or more losses by New York. The D-backs, on the other hand, are hoping for a miracle; even sweeping the Padres would leave them needing both the Mets and Reds to lose at least twice.
Got all that? Then buckle up and get ready for the show.
-- Andrew Simon
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