4 teams face elimination. Who survives?

Plus: Rookies to watch this postseason

Wednesday, September 30 View Online Welcome to The Pregame Lineup, a weekday newsletter that gets you up to speed on everything you need to know. Today's edition is brought to you by David Adler. Let's start out by ranking the comeback chances for each team that lost Game 1 of the Wild Card Series.   You never want to be in the hole in a playoff series. And you really don't want to be in the hole in the oh-so-short, best-of-three Wild Card Series. How to watch the 2026 Wild Card Series on NBC and Peacock In the 24 Wild Card Series matchups before this year, only three teams rallied to win the series after losing Game 1. So do the Phillies, Astros, Red Sox and Cubs even have a chance?    Of course they do! But which team has the best chance to rally?   Anthony Castrovince ranks 'em. Let's break it down, starting with the least likely comeback…     4) Phillies (lost to Braves, 5-3, in Game 1) Game 2 today: 2 p.m. ET, NBC / Peacock Why they're in trouble: Blowing a lead after outlasting Chris Sale in Game 1 is a massive emotional drain for a Phillies team that came into the postseason already leaking oil.   Why they can rally: The Phils have a legit stopper on the mound in Game 2 in the form of ace Cristopher Sánchez … and they don't have to face Sale anymore.   3) Cubs (lost to Padres, 8-0, in Game 1) Game 2 today: 10 p.m. ET, Peacock / NBCSN Why they're in trouble: The Cubs lost their ability to host this series by going 11-13 in the final month, while the Padres went 18-6. Game 1 was a clear continuation of those trajectories, and the Cubs' pitching problem reared its ugly head.   Why they can rally: There could be opportunities for the Cubs' high-octane offense to do its thing in Games 2 and 3, with more favorable matchups against fly-ball pitcher Nick Pivetta and then either Walker Buehler or Robbie Ray.   2) Astros (lost to White Sox, 6-3, in Game 1) Game 2 today: 5 p.m. ET, Peacock / NBCSN  Why they're in trouble: Game 1 amplified the concerns about Houston, the first postseason team without a winning record over a full season. And AL MVP favorite Yordan Alvarez is now 5-for-24 with only one extra-base hit against the White Sox this season.    Why they can rally: Astros Game 2 starter Hunter Brown is the closest thing this series has to an established ace, and forcing a Game 3 in Houston would put heavy pressure on a young White Sox team that wobbled late in the regular season.   And that leaves us with …    1) Red Sox (lost to Yankees, 9-0, in Game 1) Game 2 today: 8 p.m. ET, NBC / Peacock Why they're in trouble: Boston scored the fewest runs of any team in September, their lineup is banged up (including Roman Anthony, who got hurt in Game 1), and Yankees Game 2 starter Max Fried carved up the Red Sox this year.   Why they can rally: This rivalry can always go in any direction. In three of the five previous postseason series between the Yanks and Sox, the Game 1 loser went on to win the series (Yankees in the 2003 ALCS and last year's Wild Card Series, Red Sox in the 2004 ALCS). Cam Schlittler is Boston's nemesis, but Sonny Gray and Ranger Suarez might be able to hold their own against Fried and Gerrit Cole in Games 2 and 3.   Read more about each team's comeback chances here >> WATCH OUT FOR THESE ROOKIES IN OCTOBER There are plenty of established stars in the playoffs -- but never underestimate the power of a hotshot rookie.    Which rookies could make an impact in the postseason this year? Sam Dykstra ranked the top 10 heading into the playoffs.   We already saw a bunch of those rookies yesterday as the Wild Card Series started -- like George Lombard Jr., who notched three hits for the Yankees, and Payton Tolle, who delivered a strong start for the Red Sox.    Here are three we haven't seen yet -- but we will soon:   Victor Mesa Jr., OF, Rays   The 25-year-old will likely be a starting corner outfielder in the Division Series for the No. 1 seed in the AL. Mesa hit 14 home runs this season, and his .498 slugging percentage was second-highest on the Rays -- only MVP candidate Junior Caminero's .524 mark was higher.   Logan Henderson, RHP, Brewers   The 103-win Brewers will turn to Henderson as their No. 2 starter for the NLDS, and they're right to do so. Among pitchers who threw at least 90 innings this season, Henderson's 2.47 ERA ranked fifth and his 0.84 WHIP ranked second. His fastball-changeup combo is excellent.   Parker Messick, LHP, Guardians    Messick might be a top-10 starter in the Majors right now, regardless of the rookie designation. The 25-year-old lefty finished with a 2.56 ERA, 1.06 WHIP and 193 strikeouts in 186 1/3 innings. Messick has a six-pitch mix and exquisite command, and he gives the Guardians multiple aces for the ALDS alongside Gavin Williams. TODAY'S PLAYOFF SLATE Here's what's on the line in each of the Wild Card Series Game 2 matchups today:   Phillies at Braves (2 p.m. ET, NBC / Peacock) Game 2 FAQ Starting pitchers: Cristopher Sánchez (18-7, 2.91 ERA, 231 K's) vs. Tyler Mahle (7-10, 3.99 ERA, 137 K's)   State of the series: The Braves lead, 1-0, thanks to Austin Riley's clutch go-ahead homer off a 99.9 mph fastball from Phillies closer Jhoan Duran in Game 1. But the Phillies have a Cy Young-caliber pitcher on the mound today as they look to force a winner-take-all Game 3.   ***   White Sox at Astros (5 p.m. ET, Peacock / NBCSN)  Game 2 FAQ  Starting pitchers: Sean Burke (11-7, 3.34 ERA, 185 K's) vs. Hunter Brown (6-4, 3.19 ERA, 124 K's)   State of the series: The feel-good White Sox jumped out to the series lead against the Astros -- who are the last team Chicago won a playoff series against, all the way back in the 2005 World Series. But as Houston star Yordan Alvarez said about Game 1: "It's already in the past."   ***   Red Sox at Yankees (8 p.m. ET, NBC / Peacock)  Game 2 FAQ  Starting pitchers: Sonny Gray (18-5, 2.72 ERA, 149 K's) vs. Max Fried (5-5, 2.80 ERA, 104 K's)   State of the series: After a pitchers' duel between Cam Schlittler and Payton Tolle -- which Schlittler won, with 10 strikeouts over 6 1/3 scoreless innings -- the Yankees blew Game 1 open behind a two-homer performance by Ben Rice. With the Red Sox season on the brink, former Yankee Sonny Gray will have to beat his old team in the Bronx.   ***   Cubs at Padres (10 p.m. ET, Peacock / NBCSN)  Game 2 FAQ Starting pitchers: Kevin Gausman (9-12, 4.51 ERA, 184 K's) vs. Nick Pivetta (3-2, 2.86 ERA, 42 K's)   State of the series: Michael King and Fernando Tatis Jr. set the tone -- King with a no-hit bid, Tatis with a leadoff home run -- as the Padres stayed red-hot. The Cubs now turn to Kevin Gausman, who helped pitch the Blue Jays to the AL pennant last year, to keep their season alive. IS THIS THE IDEAL OFFENSE FOR OCTOBER? What type of lineup does it take to win in the postseason? One that mashes tons of home runs? One that puts balls in play and creates chaos? Or a blend of both?    Looking ahead to the Division Series, Jared Greenspan takes a look at how the Rays became the best team in the American League this season by becoming a more well-balanced offense.   No team had a lower strikeout rate (18.8%) or swing-and-miss rate (20.7%) this season than the Rays. But that only really matters because Tampa Bay also has a productive offense. The Rays ranked in the top half of the league in runs per game, and their 104 wRC+ was higher than all but four teams.   It's fun baseball to watch … and it's also uncharted territory for the Rays.   See, the Rays made the postseason five times in six years from 2018-23, and posted MLB's fourth-best winning percentage behind the Dodgers, Astros and Braves. But over that same period, Tampa Bay's hitters combined for a 27.2% whiff rate, the highest of any team.   These Rays are different, and this might be their best chance to win the franchise's first World Series.   Read the full story on the Rays offense here >> © 2026 MLB Advanced Media, L.P. MLB trademarks and copyrights are used with permission of Major League Baseball. Visit MLB.com. Any other marks used herein are trademarks of their respective owners. Please review our Privacy Policy. You (geoffgould.gr8iphone@blogger.com) received this message because you registered to receive commercial email messages from MLB.com. 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