Let's settle the 'rest vs. rust' debate

Plus: Previewing the 4 Division Series

Friday, October 02 View Online Welcome to The Pregame Lineup, a weekday newsletter that gets you up to speed on everything you need to know, brought to you by David Adler. Today, we settle the "rest vs. rust" debate, preview the four Division Series matchups and more.    The four teams that got a first-round bye are about to start their postseason runs, and that can only mean one thing: It's time for the annual "rest vs. rust" debate. How to watch the Division Series It doesn't matter if it's baseball, basketball, football, hockey, whatever. Once we get to the playoffs, it's inevitable. One team rides a hot streak into a matchup against another team that hasn't played in a while, and the question starts popping up: Is it better to be well-rested, or is it better to be red-hot?    The Brewers, Dodgers, Rays and Guardians have been waiting for a week to play their first playoff game. Their Division Series opponents -- that'd be the Padres, Braves, Yankees and White Sox -- have already had to prove their mettle by winning their Wild Card Series to get here.    If you're not sure what side you'd rather be on, maybe we can help. Mike Petriello did the research on how the first-round bye affects MLB playoff teams.    So: Does having that bye disrupt a team's momentum?     Not really! It turns out, the teams that have the bye win … just about as much as they should.    That doesn't mean the favored team always wins, obviously. Anything can happen in a best-of-five series, where the underdogs are really, really good teams, too. But it's not just upset city, either.    This is the fifth season we've been in the current playoff format. In the 16 Division Series since it started in 2022, the teams with the first-round bye are 9-7 against the teams that won the Wild Card Series.    By season, it looks like this:  2022: Bye teams 2-2 vs. WC winners 2023: Bye teams: 1-3 vs. WC winners 2024: Bye teams 3-1 vs. WC winners 2025: Bye teams 3-1 vs. WC winners 2026: ???  So the Wild Card-winning teams had their upset year in 2023, but over the last two seasons, the favorites have been playing like it. It kind of all evens out in the end.    Petriello goes into more detail, but the gist of it is: You'd expect the favored teams to win slightly more playoff series over the underdogs -- and they do!   If the general pattern continues this season, that means probably two or three of the Brewers, Dodgers, Rays and Guardians will win their Division Series -- but maybe not all of them. And that would just be because the Padres, Braves, Yankees and White Sox are great teams, too.   Read more here >> YOUR GUIDE TO THE DIVISION SERIES The four Division Series start tomorrow, and we have everything you need to know right here.    Here's a quick preview of each matchup:   ALDS No. 1: Rays (1) vs. Yankees (4)  Game 1 tomorrow: 6:30 p.m. ET, TBS / truTV / UniMas / HBO Max   How do these teams stack up?     See our Rays-Yankees position-by-position breakdown here.   What are the pitching matchups?    In Game 1, Gerrit Cole gets the ball for the Yankees against Rays ace Drew Rasmussen. This series features two deep rotations. The Yankees have a fearsome foursome in Cole, Cam Schlittler, Max Fried and Carlos Rodón. The Rays have Rasmussen, Nick Martinez, Freddy Peralta, Griffin Jax and Ian Seymour.    Here's how the pitching lines up >>   Key storyline    The big question for the Yankees remains: Will Aaron Judge play? We still don't know yet, but we're keeping track of the latest updates on the reigning AL MVP and his right calf strain.    For more, see the 5 matchups that could decide the Rays-Yankees ALDS >>   ***   ALDS No. 2: Guardians (2) vs. White Sox (6) Game 1 tomorrow: 1 p.m. ET, TBS / truTV / UniMas / HBO Max   How do these teams stack up?     See our Guardians-White Sox position-by-position breakdown here.   What are the pitching matchups?    The Guardians will go with star rookie Parker Messick in Game 1 followed by AL strikeout king Gavin Williams in Game 2. That's a tough pair of aces to see at the start of a playoff series. The White Sox will start the ALDS the same way they started the Wild Card Series: with star rookie reliever Hagen Smith on the mound as an "opener."   Here's how the pitching lines up >>   Key storyline    Can J-Ram be J-Ram? Guardians seven-time All-Star José Ramírez struggled through the worst season of his career. Young hitters like Travis Bazzana and Chase DeLauter have stepped up for Cleveland, but the Guards could use a bounceback from their star.   For more, see the 5 reasons why Guardians-White Sox is a must-watch series >>   ***   NLDS No. 1: Brewers (1) vs. Padres (4)  Game 1 tomorrow: 8:30 p.m. ET, FS1 / FOX Deportes / FOX One   How do these teams stack up?    See our Brewers-Padres position-by-position breakdown here.   What are the pitching matchups?    The Brewers have a dominant duo lined up to start the series: MLB ERA and strikeout king Jacob Misiorowski in Game 1, with breakout rookie Logan Henderson to follow. They're the leaders of a Milwaukee rotation that's been historically dominant with their fastballs. The Padres will likely go with either Walker Buehler and Robbie Ray in Game 1, with Wild Card Series star Michael King and Nick Pivetta coming after.    Here's how the pitching lines up for the series >>   Key storyline    The Brewers aren't the underdogs anymore. This season feels different for the Brew Crew, who rolled to MLB's best record at 103-59 and are looking to reach the World Series for the first time in their run of eight postseason appearances in the last nine years. But can they get through MLB's hottest team? The Padres have won 19 of their last 22 games, including their Wild Card Series sweep of the Cubs.   ***   NLDS No. 2: Dodgers (2) vs. Braves (3)  Game 1 tomorrow: 4 p.m. ET, FOX / FOX Deportes / FOX One     How do these teams stack up?    See our Dodgers-Braves position-by-position breakdown here.   What are the pitching matchups?    Back-to-back Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal is expected to start Game 1 for the Dodgers. He's just the first of L.A.'s four aces, along with 2025 World Series MVP Yoshinobu Yamamoto, two-time Cy Young winner Blake Snell and Tyler Glasnow. How will the Braves counter them -- especially after ace Chris Sale closed out the Wild Card Series in relief?    Key storyline    What will the Dodgers get out of Shohei Ohtani? The two-way superstar is reportedly "feeling great physically" entering the NLDS, but he won't be pitching in these playoffs due to his ongoing knee and biceps issues. And while Ohtani was able to return to the Dodgers' lineup after a late-season stint on the injured list, who knows if he'll be his usual MVP-level self at the plate in the playoffs. WE HAVE A NEW TOP 100 PROSPECTS LIST MLB Pipeline just put out the final update of the year to the 2026 Top 100 prospects list.   Sam Dykstra goes into detail about what's changed on the latest and greatest Top 100, but here are a few of the highlights.    The new top 10 overall:   1. Jesús Made, SS, Brewers  2. Franklin Arias, SS, Red Sox  3. Leo De Vries, SS/3B, Athletics  4. Josue De Paula, OF, Dodgers  5. Kade Anderson, LHP, Mariners  6. Eli Willits, SS, Nationals  7. Josuar Gonzalez, SS, Giants  8. Sebastian Walcott, SS/3B, Rangers  9. Seth Hernandez, RHP, Pirates  10. Rainiel Rodriguez, C/1B, Cardinals    Biggest risers:    +19 -- Leo Bernal, C/1B, Cardinals (99 to 80)  +17 -- Joseph Dzierwa, LHP, Orioles (86 to 69)  +17 -- Marek Houston, SS, Twins (71 to 54)  +17 -- Seaver King, SS/2B, Nationals (68 to 51)   New faces:    98. Hayden Alvarez, OF, Angels  99. Enddy Azocar, OF, Orioles   See more here >> EYE-OPENING WILD CARD SERIES PERFORMANCES The Wild Card Series had plenty of awesome performances. Now we just have to figure out which ones matter for the Division Series.   Here's our best crack at it. Jared Greenspan highlights four key takeaways from the Wild Card round that could be meaningful going forward into the rest of the postseason: The White Sox bullpen is throwing gas Ben Rice is crushing heaters for the Yankees Nick Pivetta's rising fastball looks sharp for the Padres Tyler Mahle's splitter is wiping hitters out for the Braves See exactly why those four things matter >> © 2026 MLB Advanced Media, L.P. MLB trademarks and copyrights are used with permission of Major League Baseball. Visit MLB.com. Any other marks used herein are trademarks of their respective owners. Please review our Privacy Policy. You (geoffgould.gr8iphone@blogger.com) received this message because you registered to receive commercial email messages from MLB.com. Please add info@marketing.mlbemail.com to your address book to ensure our messages reach your inbox. If you no longer wish to receive commercial email messages from MLB.com, please unsubscribe  or log in and manage your email subscriptions. 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